The Canadian Real Estate January Market Breakdown

Join real estate analyst Daniel Foch for the latest Monthly Market Call, presented in partnership with Real Estate Magazine. In this wide-ranging, data-driven session, Daniel breaks down the key forces shaping Canada’s housing market, rental landscape, and economic outlook — from mortgage renewals and credit conditions to vacancy rates, affordability, and buyer psychology.

This month’s discussion includes:

• Mortgage payment resets remain a real concern, but the “renewal cliff” looks less severe than feared
• Market sentiment is turning more bearish in key regions like Ontario and B.C.
• Delinquencies are rising toward pre-pandemic norms, with stress showing up more in smaller and mid-sized lenders
• GDP data has been volatile, and recession risk is rising as demand weakens
• Inflation is ticking up due to base effects, but the bigger story may be unemployment and recession indicators
• Non-permanent resident inflows are slowing sharply, with major impacts on student-driven rental markets
• Vacancy rates are now the highest in over a decade, with more upward pressure likely
• Rents are falling in many expensive markets and rising in more affordable ones
• GTA condo pre-construction sales have fallen to historic lows, creating serious downstream risk for construction and supply
• Buyer demand remains cautious — many are waiting on prices and interest rates before re-entering the market

Whether you’re a Realtor, broker, investor, developer, or market-watcher, this episode delivers actionable context to help you set expectations, navigate shifting conditions, and make smarter decisions in a more “normal” market environment.