Oil Majors’ Shareholder Payouts Under PressureOil majors continue to publish their Q4 2025 results, with UK-based energy giant Shell joining the ranks of those that missed fourth-quarter expectations by reporting an 11% decline in profits (at $3.3 billion). Whilst Norway’s state oil firm Equinor cut its buyback programme by 70% and cut 2026 capital expenditures, more investor-exposed majors prefer to keep their shareholder payouts unchanged. Shell has bought back a quarter of its stock over the past four years, totalling some $60 billion, with $14 billion purchased last year.Worryingly for Shell, its reserve life fell to 7.8 years as of end-2025, from 8.9 years in 2024, getting dangerously close to BP’s low of 7 years. The resource strain might be one of the main drivers behind Shell’s stated interest in Venezuelan hydrocarbons, particularly multi-billion-dollar offshore gas projects. Cold Snap, Hot Demand: U.S. Gas Inventories Drop a Record 360 bcfThe Arctic blast that swept through most of the United States’ eastern and southern states prompted the highest ever weekly natural gas inventory draw, with the EIA reporting a whopping 360 bcf drop in the week ending January 30. Following the massive stock draw, US gas stockpiles are now 1% below the 5-year average at 2.46 Tcf, even though they were 5% higher than the same 5-year average the week before. The severe weather choked off 18% of US natural gas production as water froze in wellheads, all the while power generation…
Oil Majors’ Shareholder Payouts Under Pressure
Oil majors continue to publish their Q4 2025 results, with UK-based energy giant Shell joining the ranks of those that missed fourth-quarter expectations by reporting an 11% decline in profits (at $3.3 billion).
Whilst Norway’s state oil firm Equinor cut its buyback programme by 70% and cut 2026 capital expenditures, more investor-exposed majors prefer to keep their shareholder payouts unchanged.
Shell has bought back a quarter of its stock over the past four years, totalling some $60 billion, with $14 billion purchased last year.
Worryingly for Shell, its reserve life fell to 7.8 years as of end-2025, from 8.9 years in 2024, getting dangerously close to BP’s low of 7 years.
The resource strain might be one of the main drivers behind Shell’s stated interest in Venezuelan hydrocarbons, particularly multi-billion-dollar offshore gas projects.
Cold Snap, Hot Demand: U.S. Gas Inventories Drop a Record 360 bcf
The Arctic blast that swept through most of the United States’ eastern and southern states prompted the highest ever weekly natural gas inventory draw, with the EIA reporting a whopping 360 bcf drop in the week ending January 30.
Following the massive stock draw, US gas stockpiles are now 1% below the 5-year average at 2.46 Tcf, even though they were 5% higher than the same 5-year average the week before.
The severe weather choked off 18% of US natural gas production as water froze in wellheads, all the while power generation demand was booming.
According to LSEG data, US dry gas production in the Lower 48 states saw its highest daily reading in 2026 on January 12 at 110 bcf/day and the past week’s output rates still trend some 3 bcf/day below that level.
Front-month Henry Hub futures have halved since peak-Fern havoc, currently trading slightly above $3.5 per mmBtu.
Japan Cozies Up to Qatar as Trump Pressure Looms Large
Donald Trump’s power politics might have triggered an inadvertent renaissance of oft-forgotten legacy deals as Japan’s leading utility firm JERA signed a 27-year term contract with QatarEnergy.
Linking its liquefied gas deliveries to Brent prices and committing to a multi-decade supply contract that starts from 2028 is a powerful signal from Tokyo that Japanese buyers will strive to keep their diversified pool of imports, even if pressured.
Qatar has seen its LNG exports to Japan slip from a record high of 17 million tonnes in 2013 to just 3.3 million tonnes last year as Australia and Malaysia took precedence.
The Trump administration has sought to carve out some market share for US exporters by conditioning trade deals on Alaska LNG participation, as supplies have been on a downtrend since 2021.
Simultaneously, Japan’s Mitsui is reportedly closing in on a stake in QatarEnergy’s North Field South (NFS) expansion, adding 16 mtpa of additional LNG supply from 2029 onwards.
China Overtakes India in Record Russian Oil Purchases
The US-India trade deal announced this Monday has created a flurry of speculation about India potentially ending its imports of Russian crude, as stated by US President Trump.
In the meantime, China has overtaken India as the main buyer of Russian barrels for the first time since March 2024, importing 1.6 million b/d, the highest ever reading on record.
Indian imports of Russian crude have remained flat month-over-month at 1.2 million b/d, even though the list of buyers has essentially shrunk to three (IOC, Nayara and BPCL).
There has been so far no confirmation from Indian authorities that Delhi’s pledge to curb Russian imports is part of the US-India trade deal and whether it will be implemented.
Potentially signalling that India will be a tough nut to crack, India’s private refiner Reliance – after a two-month hiatus in Russian imports – saw the discharge of two Russian cargoes already this month.
Canada Diversifies Exports as Trump Targets Planes and Metals
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney announced measures supporting EV transition to reduce the country’s reliance on US automakers, further escalating an already strained relationship with US President Trump.
In return, the White House has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian planes – over and above the 25% tariff on cars produced there – forcing Canadian producers to look for potential buyers elsewhere.
Trump’s 50% aluminium tariff, introduced in June 2025, has already kickstarted a new trend of Canadian exports to Europe – flows that virtually didn’t exist before April 2025.
By November 2025, the Netherlands have overtaken the US as the largest buyer of Canadian aluminium, importing more than 325,000 tonnes through the second half of last year.
Concurrently, the market premium for aluminium in the US Midwest surged to an all-time high of $2,180 per metric tonne last week as buyers are struggling to find any available material.
New England Turns to Oil as Arctic Weather Pushes Grid to Petroleum Peaks
As the US Northeast prepares for another cold blast to arrive over the upcoming weekend, New England’s ISO power grid operator is stocking up on heavy petroleum products.
According to EIA data, between January 24 and 27 – when Winter Storm Fern affected ISO generation – petroleum was the main electricity source in New England, hitting daily peaks of 8 GW.
Whilst petroleum-based generation is scarce across the United States, accounting for less than 1% of utility-scale generation capacity, New England holds a disproportionate 20% of that capacity.
The nameplate capacity for regional oil-fired boilers stands at 5.5 GW, suggesting that the peak daily rates seen in Arctic conditions also saw other non-petroleum boilers switching to fuel oil.
Almost 40% of New England’s 15 GW natural gas-fired generating capacity, around 6 GW, can switch fuels to run on fuel oil.
Silver’s Chinese Whiplash: Record January Surge Unravels
Silver markets have been at the forefront of volatility in recent days, first shooting up to $121 per ounce by January 29, only to see all that strength wiped out in February’s rollercoaster trading.
Even though silver markets are fundamentally tighter than gold, with the global supply deficit moving into its seventh year, its stronger macro linkage amplifies its drops.
Fleeing investors continue to wreak havoc in China’s speculative trading as the UBS SDIC fund, the country’s only exchange-listed futures fund, has been falling for five straight sessions and lost 40% of its late-January value.
Chinese billionaire Bian Ximing, who has previously made $3 billion from bullish bets on gold, has now built the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s largest short position in silver, some 30,000 contracts.
The Shanghai futures curve is now in contango for February-March, with backwardation kicking on from April onwards, whilst the CME silver futures are in contango all the way through.
