IEA’s Forecast Takes a Chill Pill as Weather Cuts Into SupplyAlleviating its oversupply doom and gloom, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its outlook for the magnitude of this year’s production glut, citing weather-related outages in Q1 2026.In the January 2026 edition of the IEA’s monthly report, the international organization found that global supply dipped by a surprise 1.2 million b/day, defying expectations of oversupply.Cold snaps across the United States and a power outage-driven closure of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field were the main causes of the sudden supply drop.The IEA’s current 2026 outlook sees global oil production rising by 2.4 million b/day, down by 100,000 b/d from a month ago, whilst demand is only expected to increase by 850,000 b/d.Out of all US-sanctioned nations, Venezuela was the most impacted as the Latin American nation’s output dipped by 210,000 b/d (to 780,000 b/d) last month, in the immediate aftermath of Maduro’s seizure. Europe’s Winter Chill Turns Gas Market Red?HotThe conventional European adage says that every winter is going to be just fine, unless the temperatures turn really cold, and the 2026 winter so far seems to have brought exactly that glacial chill.For most of January, Europe’s TTF benchmark traded above Asian LNG prices, an unprecedented feat given the proximity of ample US LNG supplies.The main reason underlying Europe’s sudden gas bullishness are rapidly depleting inventories, reaching record lows not seen…
IEA’s Forecast Takes a Chill Pill as Weather Cuts Into Supply
Alleviating its oversupply doom and gloom, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its outlook for the magnitude of this year’s production glut, citing weather-related outages in Q1 2026.
In the January 2026 edition of the IEA’s monthly report, the international organization found that global supply dipped by a surprise 1.2 million b/day, defying expectations of oversupply.
Cold snaps across the United States and a power outage-driven closure of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field were the main causes of the sudden supply drop.
The IEA’s current 2026 outlook sees global oil production rising by 2.4 million b/day, down by 100,000 b/d from a month ago, whilst demand is only expected to increase by 850,000 b/d.
Out of all US-sanctioned nations, Venezuela was the most impacted as the Latin American nation’s output dipped by 210,000 b/d (to 780,000 b/d) last month, in the immediate aftermath of Maduro’s seizure.
Europe’s Winter Chill Turns Gas Market Red?Hot
The conventional European adage says that every winter is going to be just fine, unless the temperatures turn really cold, and the 2026 winter so far seems to have brought exactly that glacial chill.
For most of January, Europe’s TTF benchmark traded above Asian LNG prices, an unprecedented feat given the proximity of ample US LNG supplies.
The main reason underlying Europe’s sudden gas bullishness are rapidly depleting inventories, reaching record lows not seen since the EU started publishing regionwide stocks data.
As of January 11, Europe’s gas inventories were only 35% full, compared to 47% a year ago and a hefty 67% on the same day in 2024, having only 402 TWh (1.3 TCf) of natural gas in storage.
If temperatures remain around average up until the end of April, Europe would need to purchase an extra 130 more LNG cargoes to fill its storage ahead of the 2026/2027 winter season.
Western Tankers Drift Away as EU Tightens Price Cap and Service Ban
The European Union is preparing to adopt a full maritime services ban on Russian oil, products and LNG, as part of the regional bloc’s 20th sanctions package against Moscow.
Brussels has already implemented restrictions on maintenance services in European shipyards; however, the new ban would also entail ship-to-ship transfers and towing operations.
Meanwhile, the share of Western tankers in Russia’s crude exports fell to just 23% in January, down from 27% in December 2025.
The total volume of Russian oil and products carried on G7-linked fleet amounted to 778,000 b/d last month, of which 40% was destined for India.
The regulatory framework for Western shippers to deal with Russian volumes has been further tightened by the EU/UK lowering the price cap to $44.1 per barrel, in contrast to the United States’ original $60 per barrel threshold.
LNG Canada Finally Finds Its Rhythm After Months of Turbulence
Canada’s embattled LNG pioneer, Shell’s 14 mtpa LNG Canada project, is showing signs of finally operating according to plan after months of operational delays and upsets.
LNG Canada’s first train experiencing months-long problems with its gas turbine and refrigeration unit, whilst its second train didn’t even start up on time, failing its October launch date by three months.
That said, the LNG terminal in Kitimat saw the loading of a record 10 cargoes in January, ramping up exports despite seven respective instances of flaring at the plant.
For comparison, LNG Canada only loaded four cargoes in December, with the longest gap between loadings at 18 days.
Despite expectations of increasing Chinese appetite for Canadian energy, South Korea is the top buyer of Canadian LNG, importing 40% or 1.1 million tonnes of all liquefied gas loaded in Kitimat.
Dr Copper Loses Its Pulse as 2026 Rally Runs Out of Steam
Supply disruptions in Indonesia and South America, Trump’s 50% tariff on copper imports, have triggered an unprecedented months-long rally for Dr Copper; however, the base metal has been lacking direction so far in 2026.
Following a lacklustre January, this month witnessed tepid trading activity as China slams the brakes on industrial activity during its nine-day Lunar New Year holiday, starting February 17.
Institutional investors have also slashed their long positions in copper futures, with net length held in LME contracts now down to 38,000 lots, down 40% since the beginning of 2026.
Meanwhile, satellite tracking of global smelting activity indicates that January 2026 might be the lowest on record, with more than 14% of global activity inactive, indicating demand woes ahead.
A pricing correction ahead might also be boosted by high inventories, with stocks held in LME, CME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange topping1 million metric tonnes for the first time in 23 years.
Trump Turns Up the Heat on Havana as Cuba’s Fuel Supply Collapses
US President Trump is keen to reshape the Latin American political landscape to his liking, moving on to Cuba after the January seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Calling Cuba ‘an extraordinary threat’ to US national security, the White House has blocked oil shipments from Mexico, prompting President Sheinbaum to ‘assess her options’ so as not to trigger tariff reprisals from Trump.
Deprived of fuel, Cuban electricity supply has dropped by as much as 50% in January, with the last crude oil shipment to the Caribbean island discharging on January 9.
Cuba imported almost 14 million barrels of crude last year, with Mexico and Venezuela both sending 6 million barrels, with the rest provided by Russia.
Cuban oil production averages around 40,000 b/d, less than half of the country’s consumption, with most of it burnt for electricity generation.
Precious Metals Cool, But Miners Stay Hot Ahead of Earnings Season
As the oil majors’ Q4 earnings left a bitter aftertaste, seeing drastically slashed buybacks and lower dividends, the metals industry is preparing for a stellar start to 2026.
Buoyed by rising copper and gold prices, dual-listed Rio Tinto saw its share performance improve by 15% since the beginning of 2026, whilst its rival BHP is up 12%.
Rio Tinto has also come out relatively unscathed from its failed $260 billion takeover of Glencore and the departure of the mining giant’s chief legal officer almost immediately after the talks failed.
Moreover, the rally in precious metals ended by early February, triggering the biggest-ever daily drop in silver prices and equally drastic gold price moves; however short-term outlook for miners remains determinedly bullish.
BHP will report its H2 2025 results on February 17, while Rio Tinto will present its annual earnings for 2025 on February 19.
