GTA high-rise land values continue to decline in 2025

High-density land values across the Greater Toronto Area are in the midst of a reset, according to the latest High-Rise Land Insights Report by Bullpen Research & Consulting Inc.

After hovering between $110 and $119 per buildable square foot from 2018 through 2021, average pricing began to slide in 2023. Values dropped to $93 per buildable square foot that year, held steady in 2024, then fell sharply to $78 in 2025, a 16 per cent year-over-year decline and roughly 29 per cent below 2018 levels.

Median pricing tells a similar story. The median fell to $75 per buildable square foot in 2023, declined to $68 in 2024 and edged down again to $66 in 2025. The trend points to sustained downward pressure rather than a one-year dip.

Interpreting the data

Bullpen notes that land pricing is influenced by more than geography. Entitlement certainty, permitted density, municipal charges, servicing limitations, environmental considerations and capital market conditions all play into what buyers are prepared to pay. 

With few truly comparable transactions and many deals subject to confidential terms, reviewing individual transactions, not just annual averages, is key to understanding the market, it says. 

416 stable while 905 suburbs see sharper downturn

The gap between Toronto and the surrounding suburbs widened in 2025.

In the ‘416’, high-rise land transactions slipped from 38 in 2024 to 31 in 2025, while average pricing held firm at roughly $85 per buildable square foot. Mid-rise activity declined as well, and pricing fell more than 30 per cent to $98 per buildable square foot, influenced in part by larger sites trading during the year.

In the ‘905’, the slowdown was more pronounced. High-rise transactions fell from 20 to seven year-over-year. Average pricing dropped from $54 to $23 per buildable square foot, a decline of about 60 per cent. Smaller sites changing hands suggest buyers are prioritizing lower-risk opportunities. Mid-rise activity was steadier, with modest pricing gains of from $49 to $52 per buildable square foot.

Toronto remains highest-priced municipality despite decline

Toronto remained the highest-priced municipality in 2025 at $115 per buildable square foot, down 19 per cent from $142 in 2024. 

Slower condo absorption, elevated construction costs and more selective financing have reshaped the landscape, but core locations continue to command a premium, albeit a narrower one, says Bullpen.

Q4 transactions highlight distressed sales

Twenty-two high-density land deals closed across the GTA in the fourth quarter of 2025. The average site measured 0.73 acres, with proposed projects typically rising 22 storeys. Properties traded for about $11.8 million on average, or $81 per buildable square foot. The average land-to-revenue ratio was nine per cent.

Five transactions were identified as distressed sales. A North York City Centre site traded at $137 per buildable square foot, while a Danforth Avenue property sold at $42. Three additional distressed deals were recorded in the ‘905’, including a 2.82-acre Richmond Hill site planned for multiple towers that traded at $44 per buildable square foot.