Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Iran is now trying to shift tack, openly appealing to Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy as nuclear talks resume in Geneva. Tehran is talking about clear economic benefits for the United States. They have pointed to oil and gas field development, mining projects, and access to critical minerals as areas where American companies could invest if sanctions are eased. The Iranian Foreign Minister is meeting US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for a third round of negotiations, and an opportunity is now on the table.
In a contradictory State of the Union address, Trump told Congress that the United States obliterated Iran’s nuclear program in June. Days earlier, his envoy Steve Witkoff said Iran is probably a week away from having industrial grade bomb making material. Trump is claiming total destruction while his own negotiator is warning that Tehran is on the verge of a bomb. If the program were wiped out, Iran should not be this close to weapons capability. Both positions are now being advanced at the same time as tensions rise again.
China does not view Iran as expendable. Beijing has billions tied up in Iran through its long term strategic agreement, and it buys most of Iran’s exported oil. Another US or Israeli attack would put those investments and energy flows at risk. Since the June 2025 strikes, China has stepped up technical support. Iran has shifted from US-controlled GPS to China’s BeiDou system,…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Iran is now trying to shift tack, openly appealing to Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy as nuclear talks resume in Geneva. Tehran is talking about clear economic benefits for the United States. They have pointed to oil and gas field development, mining projects, and access to critical minerals as areas where American companies could invest if sanctions are eased. The Iranian Foreign Minister is meeting US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for a third round of negotiations, and an opportunity is now on the table.
In a contradictory State of the Union address, Trump told Congress that the United States obliterated Iran’s nuclear program in June. Days earlier, his envoy Steve Witkoff said Iran is probably a week away from having industrial grade bomb making material. Trump is claiming total destruction while his own negotiator is warning that Tehran is on the verge of a bomb. If the program were wiped out, Iran should not be this close to weapons capability. Both positions are now being advanced at the same time as tensions rise again.
China does not view Iran as expendable. Beijing has billions tied up in Iran through its long term strategic agreement, and it buys most of Iran’s exported oil. Another US or Israeli attack would put those investments and energy flows at risk. Since the June 2025 strikes, China has stepped up technical support. Iran has shifted from US-controlled GPS to China’s BeiDou system, replaced Western software with Chinese systems, and reportedly taken in Chinese missile-related materials and air defense platforms. China’s response is the important one here.
Russia has tightened its position, signing a long-term strategic partnership with Tehran and expanding defense cooperation. Russia is tied down in Ukraine, but it has reason to assist Iran with intelligence and weapons, especially after relying on Iranian drones in its own war effort.
Switzerland is cutting off new purchases of Russian gas and tightening sanctions on Moscow. Starting April 25, it will ban the purchase and import of Russian LNG. Existing contracts can run through 2026, but will not be renewed. Bern says the aim is to curb Russia’s fossil fuel revenues that fund the war in Ukraine. Switzerland is also aligning with the EU’s nineteenth sanctions package. It will ban cryptocurrency services for Russian individuals and firms, expand restrictions on metals used in weapons production and fuel manufacturing, and widen service bans to include advanced technology, artificial intelligence, and tourism-related services. Any remaining services to the Russian government will now require prior approval.
Washington is backing away from its full fuel blockade on Cuba and will now allow the resale of Venezuelan oil to the Cuban private sector. Treasury says it will grant licenses for transactions that support private businesses and humanitarian use, but anything tied to the Cuban government, military, or intelligence services remains off limits. Trump had vowed to stop Venezuelan oil from reaching the island, and the cutoff worsened fuel shortages, power outages, and service disruptions across Cuba. Washington is now reopening a narrow path for oil to flow, while keeping broader sanctions in place.
Oil sales under the new US Venezuela supply agreement are expected to reach 2 billion dollars by the end of February, with roughly 40 million barrels projected to change hands. Trading houses Vitol and Trafigura are marketing the crude, while Chevron and other partners are helping lift output. The barrels are moving back into Asia and Europe, with a large share heading to the US Gulf Coast. The deal marks a sharp increase in Venezuelan volumes returning to the market under Washington’s current framework.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
The European Commission has cleared Azerbaijan’s state-run SOCAR to acquire Italiana Petroli and its subsidiary MIP. Under the September 2025 agreement, SOCAR will purchase 99.82% of Italiana Petroli from API Holding. Italiana Petroli operates two Italian refineries with a combined capacity of about 10 million tonnes per year and runs roughly 4,500 fuel stations nationwide. The group is also active in fuel logistics, including aviation fuel, lubricants, and bitumen. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of this year.
Devon Energy and Coterra Energy have agreed to merge in an all-stock deal valued at roughly 58 billion dollars, including debt, creating one of the largest independent producers in the United States with combined output above 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company will keep the Devon name, with shareholders split 54% to 46%, and is expected to close in the second quarter. The merger combines Devon’s Permian footprint with Coterra’s Marcellus gas and Anadarko assets, giving the new company more than 750,000 net acres in the Delaware Basin and a stronger natural gas position as power demand from data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure rises. Management is targeting 1 billion dollars in annual pre-tax synergies by next year through capital discipline and operational efficiencies.
Glenfarne and TotalEnergies have signed a letter of intent for TotalEnergies to buy 2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from the 20 MTPA Alaska LNG project. The deal supports Glenfarne’s plan to contract 16 MTPA, or 80% of capacity, to secure financing. With this agreement, 13 MTPA is now covered under preliminary long-term deals with buyers, including JERA, Tokyo Gas, CPC, PTT and POSCO. Alaska LNG includes an 807-mile pipeline from the North Slope and export facilities designed to produce 20 MTPA. The project will be built in two phases: domestic supply first and exports second. Glenfarne owns 75%, and the State of Alaska holds 25%.
Discovery, Development & Earnings
Cheniere Energy has brought another train online at its Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 expansion, producing first LNG this week from Train 5. Management said the remaining two trains are still on track to start up by the fall. Corpus Christi Stage 3 is now more than 94% complete and is expected to reach substantial completion in the first half of this year. With the new capacity, Cheniere has 52 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity in operation across Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, more than 9 mtpa under construction and over 40 mtpa moving through the permitting process. The ramp-up is showing up in the numbers. Full year 2025 net income rose 64% to $5.3 billion from $3.3 billion a year earlier, while revenue increased 27% to $20 billion from $15.7 billion. Fourth quarter net income climbed 136% to $2.3 billion from $977 million, with quarterly revenue up 23% to $5.5 billion from $4.4 billion. The company said gains were driven mainly by favorable changes in derivative valuations and higher LNG volumes from the initial Stage 3 trains.
MP Materials is set to break ground within days on a 1.25 billion dollar rare earth magnet manufacturing campus near Dallas. The project, known as 10X, is designed to expand US based production of neodymium iron boron magnets and strengthen domestic supply chains. The new Texas facility is expected to significantly boost annual output capacity toward 10,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets, deepening MP’s move downstream from mining and processing into finished magnet manufacturing. The investment marks one of the largest commitments yet to rebuild US rare earth magnet production at scale.
Iraq says output at the West Qurna 2 oilfield could rise to between 750,000 and 800,000 barrels per day if Chevron takes over operations from Russia’s Lukoil. Oil Minister Hayan Abdel Ghani said Chevron has secured exclusive negotiations to run the field, which currently produces around 480,000 barrels per day and accounts for roughly 10% of Iraq’s total output. The shift would hand control of one of the world’s largest oilfields to a US major as Lukoil exits under sanctions pressure. Baghdad is pushing to lift national production capacity above 6 million barrels per day by 2029 and has been offering more favorable terms to global oil companies to drive expansion. A Chevron takeover would deepen US involvement in Iraq’s energy sector.
Exxon says its Uaru and Whiptail projects offshore Guyana are moving ahead of schedule and under budget. The two developments, Exxon’s fifth and sixth in the country, are each designed to produce 250,000 barrels per day. Uaru is expected to start production this year, while Whiptail is slated for 2027. Once both are online, Guyana’s total output is projected to reach about 1.4 million barrels per day. At the same time, Guyana’s government is pressing Exxon to advance natural gas projects as it looks to build out petrochemicals and potentially support data center growth. During its fourth quarter 2025 earnings call, Exxon said output from its advantaged assets, including the Permian, Guyana, and LNG, continues to rise and is expected to account for roughly 65% of total production by 2030.
US sanctions relief has cleared a major hurdle for BP to move forward on the Manakin-Cocuina offshore natural gas field shared between Venezuela and Trinidad & Tobago. A new general licence from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control gives BP the legal go-ahead to resume development of the cross-border project, which had stalled after a previous waiver was revoked in 2025. The field combines the long-known Cocuina discovery in Venezuelan waters with the larger Manakin resource on the Trinidad & Tobago side, and roughly two-thirds of the gas sits in Manakin. The move reflects a broader shift in US policy, allowing oil majors to pursue specific energy projects in Venezuela under controlled licensing conditions.
