Conrad Zurini’s lessons from a life in real estate cycles

Growing up in the business, I got to enjoy a front-row seat to everything real estate. My parents never shielded us from the booms and busts of the real estate industry. We knew what a good market felt like in all of its glory, and we knew the scarcity of a bust market.

So I recently had an opportunity to go through several old family photo albums. It’s funny — when we refer to photo albums, it always comes with a vintage descriptor. Photo-album page turning is a different experience than just scrolling through past photos on your phone. There is something to the physicality of a photo in those plastic pages that is not only nostalgic, but gives you an opportunity to really immerse yourself in that unfiltered moment. When you identify a photo that requires a closer look, you pull it from that plastic, shiny covering and feel the moment between your fingers. You look into the eyes and behind the smile of the subject, and the memory is reignited. Photos in this format are real; they capture the moment, blemished and unfiltered.

As I reviewed the decades of photos, I could see those times of abundance and those of scarcity. Don’t get me wrong — I had a very charmed childhood, full of love and laughter. But the subtlety of being in a family that relied on the whims of a volatile real estate market to put food on the table and create a life was no more evident than at the holidays. My dad never scrimped on a tree, and it had to be real (à la Clark Griswold) — nothing fake — to my mom’s chagrin, because she had to vacuum up all those pine needles and tinsel once Christmas was over. What was uncanny in the photos of our trees was the diameter of the gifts around the base of the tree. The larger the diameter, the better the economic times were. The small circles of consumerism came in 1974-75, 1981-82 and 1990-92, which, ironically, were all technical recessions.

Growing up in a real estate family, boom and bust years were an integral part of everyday life. Furthermore, being surrounded by veteran real estate agents, there was always a saying or two that justified the dependence on the market’s ebbs and flows. Like surfers waiting for the next perfect wave, agents are constantly waiting for that market uptick — but once they are in it, they love to complain about it.

The Realtor Creed is unfortunately alive and well in the real estate community. But what if this real estate cycle goes on much longer than we expect? Will you be that agent who prays the creed, or one who does something to grow a systematic and sustainable business?

The “I Just Need One More Great Market” creed

In the name of listings, offers and the holy multiple, let this be my creed.
I have survived buyers’ markets, sellers’ markets and whatever we are calling this one,
Yet I still believe in one more glorious boom before I hang up my lockbox.
Grant me steady nerves if and when rates may rise,
Sharp instincts when prices fall,
And the stamina to answer late-night texts that start with “Just one more question …”

May my open houses be busy,
My appraisals come in at value.
Deliver me from lowball offers with endless conditions,
And the seller’s song of “maybe I’ll wait for the market to get better.”

Bless my database, my CRM and every name I’ve ever scribbled on a gas receipt,
for they are the seeds of my final, fabulous run.
Let the next cycle be kind,
The bidding wars be civilized,
And the headlines stop saying “Affordability Crisis” just in time for my farewell tour.

And when the boom at last returns in full force,
May my IG likes be plentiful and DMs engaging,
My listings sell in days, not months,
And my retirement party be funded by that one listing that sold before the sign went up.

Until that day, I will renew my licence and pay my board dues,
Recharge my phone
And repeat this creed:

“Just one more market,
Just one more peak,
And then, maybe, I’ll finally retire.”

It’s beginning to look a lot like a bear market

The simplicity of the three types of markets — buyers, sellers and balanced — is something that has always disappointed me as a student of real estate. Is it really only about these three pillars? And how does this notion of three planks of the market give any indication of how the market will perform, not to mention that two of the three market conditions oppose each other? For instance, why would a seller put their home up for sale in a buyers’ market? Or why would home buyers think of purchasing a home in a sellers’ market? It makes no sense when you realize how many homes were sold in 2021, the mother of all sellers’ markets. It seems counterintuitive.

The Bank of Montreal, in its recent 2026 outlook report, answers that fundamental question of what kind of market we are really in. The answer is a bear market, where home values are either plateauing or on a slight decline, coupled with an air of pessimism. If you closely examine the Ontario housing market in the 1990s, where it took more than 10 years for home prices to reach their peak, and compare it to the U.S. crisis of 2007, which also took 10 years to return to peak levels, there is an uncanny similarity in the trajectory of current home prices. The question remains: Will home prices rebound to 2022 levels in a deeper V pattern, where prices have yet another year to hit bottom, or in a lazier U, more gradual, like the 1990s? Back to the future we go.

Best value vs. affordability

How do we all survive and thrive in a bear market? We preach value, not price point. I’m not talking about our value as real estate practitioners, but the high value of the properties we are selling. In a bear stock market, traders look for undervalued, high-potential stocks. Earnings and profitability rule the day, with a heavy dose of market rarity for the company whose stock is being traded. Stockbrokers uncover value for their clients to satisfy the long- or short-term needs of their investments.

Why don’t agents do the same? Why aren’t they leading with price per square foot in their descriptions and attaching one, five, 10 and 20-year pricing and unit-sales charts for area homes? Is the area underpriced compared with surrounding neighbourhoods? Is it plateauing or on an upward trajectory? Provide buyers with a reason to buy, and they will come to the party — and so will sellers, when they realize it just isn’t about bedrooms and baths in this type of market.

The K-shaped economy can provide a false positive

The K-shaped economy is something we saw during the pandemic, where certain industries fared better than others, and where country properties outperformed urban townhouses. Pandemic conditions aside, the Canadian real estate market is like the tale of two economies, where the K-shape is often not due to demographics or socioeconomic standing, but based on geography. When the Calgary market is booming, the Ontario market is struggling, and vice versa. We have experienced this phenomenon in housing starts as well, where Montreal is 104 per cent above last year, and Toronto is 85 per cent below the 10-year average.

The U.S. economy is the poster child of the K-shaped economy, especially when it comes to consumer buying behaviour. Holiday spending in 2025 was up, but not due to increased buyer volume — rather, the higher dollar value of individual goods. It is estimated that holiday spending in the U.S. hit more than $1 trillion, which doesn’t make sense in an uncertain economy. The reason is that the uber-wealthy are making expensive purchases, which in turn increases overall spending. It’s what is driving GDP — but it’s not everyone spending; it’s just the one per cent. When you look at the real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area, where overall sale prices are down, it’s a different story in the $10-million-plus market. As illustrated in the graph below, the upper end has fared better, with average prices above 2021 levels and up 2.5 per cent and 7 per cent above 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Average price has a way of tainting market statistics, so be mindful of these nuances. They have a tendency to point consumers in the wrong direction. It’s beholden upon us as professionals to cut through the noise and provide credible, sound data.

What we can take from the Year of the Snake as we kick off the Year of the Horse

The Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 17, 2026, and I have always been fascinated with the origins of Chinese astrology, which was developed over thousands of years as part of a broader system that linked time, politics, and the success or failure of individuals. I imagine it as a system by which we adjust our mindset as we enter the new year. The fact that it usually falls three to seven weeks after Jan. 1 — the starting point of the Gregorian calendar, which tracks the Earth’s orbit around the sun — while the lunar calendar follows the moon’s phases, gives us time to reflect. From a New Year’s resolution perspective, it’s nice to have a month to see how the year is faring, along with holiday credit card statements, to put forth achievable resolutions rather than, immediately after the holidays of gluttony, resolutions that focus solely on diet and exercise.

The Lunar Zodiac is comprised of 12-year animal cycles, whereby the attributes of that animal provide guidance as we navigate the year. Last year was the Year of the Snake, which is associated with intuition, analytical thinking, strategic foresight and calm observation. Are you ready to shed the skin of past failures and put together a working plan for the Year of the Horse? The horse, which governs 2026, is action-oriented, full of intensity and drive, underscored by the courage to implement change. The Year of the Horse is a time to roll up your sleeves and become industrious in everything you do. The passive agent who waits for business to come to them in 2026 will find frustration and defeat.

You still have time for quiet reflection

You may not have known that 2025 was the Year of the Snake, but our buyers and sellers sure did. Many of them sat in silent reflection on the sidelines. They analyzed information filled with doom and gloom, waited for interest-rate announcements and watched politicians attempt to negotiate trade deals under full-moon emotions. So when are we going to get on the same page with our consumers and provide them with deeper analysis when it comes to pricing homes for sellers and, conversely, helping buyers make better, more informed decisions?

We all have five weeks until the Lunar New Year to decide on our career resolutions. Will you be the Realtor who puts real horsepower into their business, or the agent who sits at home praying the creed, awaiting the next big wave?