GTA luxury home market weakens as buyers secure deep discounts in 2025

Not a single home in the Greater Toronto Area listed for $10 million or more sold above its asking price in 2025, as luxury buyers negotiated some of the deepest discounts seen anywhere in the housing market, according to new data from HouseSigma.

The typical luxury buyer paid nearly 10 per cent below asking last year — more than three times the 2.5-per-cent median discount recorded across the broader GTA market. In dollar terms, that translated into a median savings of $1.145 million on homes that carried an average list price of $14.3 million and an average sale price of $12.8 million.

“The bigger they are, the harder they fall,” said HouseSigma agent Sammy Kohn. “That just gets accelerated in the luxury market.”

Price gaps widen across the GTA

HouseSigma’s analysis found nearly three-quarters of all GTA homes sold below their final asking price in 2025, while just under one-quarter sold for more. Condominiums posted the deepest median discounts, followed by detached houses, while attached homes tended to sell closest to the list price.

The softening was most pronounced in higher-end municipalities such as King Township, Caledon and Oakville, where price gaps between asking and sale prices were widest. More affordable markets, including Oshawa and Clarington, recorded the smallest discounts.

Sellers adjust after pandemic boom

Kohn said luxury properties have always been difficult to price accurately, but sellers are still adjusting after the rapid run-up of the pandemic years.

“Luxury properties in Toronto are notoriously difficult to price at the best of times. It’s by no means an exact science,” he said, noting that many owners are still trying to come to terms with a market that no longer resembles 2021, when homes were “flying off the shelves.”

Sales volumes across Toronto last year were roughly half their 2021 levels, Kohn said, and the slowdown has also hit the high-end segment.

Buyers regain negotiating power

The scale of price corrections was illustrated by a Forest Hill mansion that sold in 2025 for $7.5 million after first being listed at $19.99 million in August 2024. Even after its final asking price was cut to $10.29 million, the home sold at a $2.79-million discount — the largest dollar drop recorded on any GTA residential sale last year.

Kohn said emotional attachment can make it harder for sellers of large custom homes to adjust their expectations.

“Most sellers have emotional attachments to what they own, a bank of memories,” he said. “That gets exacerbated with these 5,000- to 6,000-square-foot properties with eight bedrooms and eight ensuite bathrooms. You can really lose sight of value.”

He said sellers can wish all they want as far as what they feel a place is worth, but “ultimately buyers make these decisions.”

With inventory continuing to climb into 2026 and economic uncertainty weighing on demand, Kohn said negotiating leverage is likely to remain on the buyer’s side.

“There’s breathing room now,” he said.

He said the market conditions make his job more rewarding, as research and skilled negotiation can make a difference again. 

“It’s not always the case of sellers winning with these insane prices,” he said.

Kohn has been with HouseSigma for three years and in the real estate industry for 15 years. Outside of selling homes, he’s a member of platinum-selling rock band The Watchmen, which still sells out venues across Canada today, nearly 35 years after releasing its debut album.