CMHC sees persistent mortgage repayment pressure in parts of Ontario, but describes more stable or improving conditions elsewhere.
What is known and what is forecast
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said in an October 27 release that Ontario's mortgage arrears rate reached 0.32% in the second quarter of 2026. In this series, arrears refers to mortgage payments at least 90 days overdue. CMHC anticipates a further increase through mid-2027. The observed second-quarter percentage is not the same as the projected path, and it should not be presented as the proportion of homeowners who have missed any payment whatsoever.
Where CMHC expects the most pressure
The federal housing agency identifies the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and Southwestern Ontario as regions where repayment stress is expected to remain elevated. Its report links vulnerability partly to weakness in manufacturing, especially the automotive sector, and uncertainty surrounding trade policy. The agency also says the payment shock associated with a large wave of mortgage renewals has likely passed its peak. Those are the report's assessments and may change as the economy and interest rates evolve.
Western and Atlantic conditions are different
CMHC expects a more moderate rise in mortgage arrears in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. It says arrears have declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan amid comparatively stronger economic conditions and higher energy prices and expects greater stability in those provinces through mid-2027. The variation is important: a national average can conceal significant local patterns, and Ontario's experience is not a substitute for a Canadian total.
Prices are a separate measure
Statistics Canada's September New Housing Price Index, released October 22, fell 0.2% nationally on a month-to-month basis, with Ontario down 0.5% and British Columbia up 0.5%. The NHPI follows agreed prices of specified new homes, not resale housing, condominium prices or an individual's mortgage balance. A household's exposure depends on factors such as income, debt, contract terms and renewal date. Readers should not infer an individual default risk from provincial averages.
Sources & transparency
CMHC — Residential Mortgage Industry Report news release, October 27Statistics Canada — New Housing Price Index, September 2026Original CDN News coverage. Sources are linked for reference.
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