Updated exit polls put the change bloc slightly ahead but leave every main grouping short of the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. The official count has begun and may differ.
Exit polls narrow the race, but do not settle it
After voting closed on October 27, updated exit polls from Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13 converged on 52 seats for the bloc seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 50 for Netanyahu’s allies and 18 for Arab parties in the 120-seat Knesset. The projections leave the change bloc nine seats short of a majority and Netanyahu’s bloc 11 short. The exact party-by-party allocations differ between broadcasters.
Likud is projected as the largest party
The updated Channel 13 projection puts Likud at 25 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at 23; Ynet reports Channel 12 at 24 and 22 respectively. These are exit-poll estimates based on interviews with voters leaving polling stations, not official vote totals. They can change as broadcasters revise estimates and as ballots are counted.
Turnout was unusually high
Ynet reports that Israel’s Central Elections Committee recorded 5,695,682 voters by the 10 p.m. poll closing, or 77.7% of eligible voters. The outlet describes this as the highest turnout at poll-closing time since 2001. The number may rise because voters who arrived before closing were allowed to finish voting afterward.
What happens next
The Central Elections Committee has begun publishing the official count. Early results can be unrepresentative while only a small share of ballots has been processed, so they should not be converted into projected Knesset seats without a transparent method. The official results page is linked below. Military and other double-envelope ballots are expected to take longer to verify, and coalition negotiations will depend on the final distribution and the parties’ willingness to work together.
How this differs from pre-election polls
The final pre-election surveys were released before election day and differed substantially by pollster, including over Likud’s expected strength. Exit polls are a separate measure gathered on voting day after respondents have cast ballots. Neither type is the official result. The current seat figures should therefore be read as a close projection, with no confirmed winner or governing majority yet.
Sources & transparency
Reuters live election results and exit pollsYnet — updated exit polls and turnoutThe Times of Israel — Channel 13 exit pollIsrael Central Elections Committee — official resultsOriginal CDN News briefing prepared from linked reporting. Exit polls are estimates, not official results; figures may change.
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